yellow light for" soy "USDA Report
met this week the volume of imports from China in February, was well below the shipments of the same month in 2010. Pablo Andreani. Pressure Tuesday, March 29, 2011
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bearish crop
Japan: initial impact mercadosHasta bearish on the last Wednesday, Chicago showed some downward trend in major agricultural commodities, as wheat, soybeans and corn . While each of these products have different supply and demand components that are disrupting their markets, at present the situation is having considerable influence on short-term trend.
For soybeans, this week met the volume of imports from China during the month of February: from 2.32 million tonnes, well below the 2.9 million tonnes shipped in February last year. This is the first time in many months that China confirmed a lower volume of its imports of soybeans, compared to the same period last year.
This single news helped consolidate lower Wednesday in Chicago, which was about six dollars per ton. And it can be an indicator of potential demand lower soybean for the short term, given the increase of domestic stocks.
If this trend is confirmed for March shipment, this would be the first yellow warning sign for the soybean complex. This situation coincides with the expected record harvest in Brazil. Agroconsultas are estimating a volume of 70 million tonnes, and added the recovery that has been Soybean production in Argentina, with a volume of 48 to 50 million tons according to the source.
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As additional factor must be considered that at this time and during the next two months, enters the world market the South American soybean harvest, and this factor alone can help the potential drop in prices.
future positions. However, if you look at the future positions in the Chicago market we see that the long soybean futures shows some resistance to low compared to the short future. By-case basis in November 2011 soybeans trading at $ 494, only eight dollars below the position soybean May listed at $ 502 per tonne.
's not really a low magnitude, considering the record volume of soybean production in South America, and we tend to think that this is a message that the market wants to convey to soybean farmers "in the United States to not decrease its sowing area under the first reports of intent much more favorable at this time to an increase in corn acres.
In the case of maize, Chicago also showed a tendency to fall, before the non-confirmation by the government to sell maize to China with the entry of the new crop operating at a strong U.S. discount to corn prices in the near future positions.
In this sense we can see that at the close of trading Tuesday, the price of corn in Chicago in July 2011 position trading at $ 273, while the position in December 2011 closed at 241, down $ 32 or equivalent to 12 percent.
We wonder whether the Americans will have an increase in production volume for this upcoming campaign of such magnitude as to justify such a low. And in the case of soybeans, if the drop in production will be strong enough to justify the current low resistance indicating the future, considering also super soybean harvest is expected in South America, entering the next 60 days the world market.
Silent War. Everything indicates that at present there is a silent war between soy and corn, competing in the new crop area for 2011/12, which is reflected in the trend of future contributions of Chicago. The market has received signals from an increase of 1.8 million hectares in the intention of American corn seed, and it is projecting a drop in soybean planting intentions. In this sense, anxiously waiting the report of intention to surface of soybean and corn that will be released on Usda on 31 March.
* Grain Market Analyst, owner of Agri-CEP Consultants.
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